Gold Rallies as Analysts Forecast Further Strength

Precious metal markets have rallied over the past week, with gold +1.65% to USD $4,157oz. Silver has also rallied, +5%, last trading at USD $53.40oz, with the gold-to-silver ratio (GSR) currently sitting at 78.

Those moves put both precious metals in a good position to record another monthly price gain, with gold currently +3.7% (USD terms), and silver +9% (USD terms) for November so far. Similar moves have been seen for local currency investors, with the AUD/USD exchange rate largely unchanged.

Year to date, the returns are even more impressive, with gold +60% and silver +85% in USD terms. Should these levels be maintained, 2025 will be remembered as one of the greatest years for precious metal investors on record.

Market-leading growth has put gold and silver back on the map as the preferred asset class for investors worldwide. That includes Australia; with ABC Bullion seeing record levels of activity across the year, with the gold price spiking above AUD $6,500oz in mid-October, and the demand surge that accompanied it being a clear highlight.

There is a good chance that 2026 will see more of the same, with a range of high-profile institutions calling for further strength in precious metal prices. These include;

• World Gold Council CEO David Tait, who recently highlighted scenarios that could see gold rise toward USD $5,000oz, with interest rates, inflation and central bank buying all factors. Tait observed; “I would be very surprised if we don't see [gold reaching] $5,000 per ounce in a few months’ time, unless US President Donald Trump gets lucky and gets it right by generating high GDP growth of 6-7 per cent with moderate inflation, and brings down the deficit. If he does that, that's probably a point at which I'd start to worry for the gold price, because gold has been going higher through an inherent fear of financial failure.” Tait also noted the importance of China’s decision to allow insurance companies to buy gold.

• Goldman Sachs is also bullish, forecasting a further 20% rise for the gold price in 2026. Based on current levels, that would push the precious metal up toward the USD $4,800-USD $5,000oz price level.

• Citing gold as their top commodity pick, Morgan Stanley sees prices heading toward USD $4,500oz by the middle of 2026, with resurgent ETF demand, central bank buying and the rising need for real asset hedging all set to drive demand for the precious metal.

• Deutsche is also firmly in the bullish camp, with Michael Hsueh, a research analyst at the bank, noting that a “positioning correction has completed” in the market. The Deutsche base case sees gold at USD $4,450oz, while it also sees scenarios where gold rises to USD $4,950oz next year.

• HSBC is also optimistic, though less bullish in terms of likely percentage gains for gold, with James Steel, chief precious metal analyst, noting; “The likelihood that seismic and possibly permanent shifts in the geopolitical landscape, combined with more virulent forms of nationalism, including economic nationalism, in the form of tariffs, geopolitical risk, financial market turbulence, and questions over Fed independence and monetary policy look likely to persist.”

Lastly, Allianz published an excellent article looking at gold’s role as a unique portfolio differentiator, noting its low correlation to US equities and US treasuries plus its value as a real asset, contributing to its strategic value enduring as we head into 2026.

Inflation, interest rates, geopolitics, tariffs, central bank demand, a resurgence of interest from ETF investors, strong bar and coin buying in physical markets, the need for greater portfolio diversification, hard asset exposure in a world of expensive and low yielding financial assets… it’s the perfect cocktail for continued strength in both gold and silver demand, and gold and silver prices.

This doesn’t mean either asset will go up in a straight line, nor that the corrective period for precious metals is over.

But the long-term fundamentals remain rock solid, with investors likely to continue gravitating toward these unmatched stores of wealth, as they have for most of this year, and indeed for the majority of this 25-year bull market cycle.

Thank you for choosing ABC Bullion.

Jordan Eliseo
General Manager, ABC Bullion

Luke Tyler
Market and Business Analyst, ABC Bullion

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